- The betting site Polymarket has emerged as a hot topic in the 2024 presidential race.
- Trump has a 66% chance of winning based on bets there. National polls generally show the race tied.
- Wagers in its pop culture section show the bro-y vibe of the site: Zyn, Andrew Tate, and Hawk Tuah.
I am not an expert in gambling, markets, or presidential politics. But I feel confident that I'm an expert in assessing the "vibe" of an online space.
And when it comes to the wagering site Polymarket — to get a sense of the people who are placing wagers — I submit that the place to look is not the presidential race, which has drawn the most attention and money, but in the "Pop Culture" section.
Let's look at some of the wagers:
- Will Trump say "skibidi" before the election?
- Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the election?
- Will Donald Trump say "mog" in 2024? ("Mog" is Gen Z slang for being better looking than someone else.)
- Will the US ban Zyn?
- Will Roaring Kitty go to jail in 2024?
- Will Trump do a podcast with Hawk Tuah Girl?
- Will there be a Lunchly recall? (Lunchly refers to the premade lunches from MrBeast, KSI, and Logan Paul. Some people on social media have said theirs were moldy.)
You can get a pretty clear picture of the vibe on Polymarket, where people place bets using crypto. These are the interest areas of what Max Read calls "the Zynernet" — crypto-loving, Zyn-chomping, Joe Rogan-listening, Barstool-reading, Draft Kings-playing, male Gen Z'ers. This online world isn't explicitly political or MAGA, but can be right-leaning. It's the young male podcast network that Trump has tapped into with appearances on podcasts hosted by Logan Paul, Theo Von, and Adin Ross.
The "Pop Culture" bets aren't all Zynternet-focused. There are other more neutral ones, like wagers on the top-grossing movie of the year or the opening box office figures for "Wicked" later this month. But of the 43 bets available in the section, all but a few have a sort of terminally online bro-y flavor. (There are three bets about Taylor Swift, for example, but all of them are about her relationship with Travis Kelce.)
So why does this matter?
Some people are paying attention to Polymarket because they think it might be giving real insight into the election — moreso than traditional polls. Polymarket's founder, Shayne Coplan, told The New Yorker: "As price-discovery theory would go, a ton of clueless people trading would be more predictive and accurate than one expert."
But recently, some curious stuff has happened: There's been talk of a single big bettor — a "whale" — putting down a bet worth around $30 million that Trump will win. That kind of money from just one person could tip the scales. Trump's odds on Polymarket have gone from 48% on October 1 to 66% now, all while national polls are basically tied. US users also aren't allowed to use Polymarket, but I wonder how this is policed given the bets are in crypto.
I asked Polymarket for comment. They haven't responded.
Meanwhile, I'm not the only person who's noticed the vibes on the betting site. In New York Magazine, John Herrman pointed out the comments section is also revealing:
Users like KamalaTheJailer, who has bet more than $16,000 on Harris winning, and who today posted, "McDonald's is having an E. Coli outbreak. Happens if you let pieces of shit close to your food." Or user JulianP, with more than $700,000 bet on Trump, who shared some recent thoughts: "Even with Kamala's earring headphones she still can't figure out how to answer anything."
I can understand the logic that people who put their own money on a bet are going to do it passionately. A sports-betting New Yorker might put money on the Dodgers to win the World Series, even if they are rooting for the Yankees.
But when you look at the vibe scene on Polymarket, it's hard not to imagine that some bettors have a worldview gleaned from consuming very specific kinds of media that would lead them to have certain ideas about how the election will go — ideas that don't line up with mainstream polling.
For the record, I think the odds that Trump will say "skibidi" before the election are way too low.